The VET Sector at a Crossroads
What the next 5 years demand of us
The Skills Forecast · Episode 2 · with Andrew Shea, Skilled Nation
2026 is shaping up as one of the most complex, and consequential, periods the VET sector has faced in years: persistent skills shortages, fee-free TAFE bedding in as a permanent fixture, and a fundamental rebuild of how training packages themselves are designed. In this episode of The Skills Forecast, Kerri Buttery sits down with Andrew Shea, a VET sector leader with more than 20 years in executive roles across post-secondary education, for a practitioner's verdict on what the sector is getting right, what it's getting wrong, and what it will take to be genuinely fit for purpose over the next five years.
“We are our own worst enemy in the VET sector.”
- Andrew Shea, Founder, Skilled Nation
Five things worth taking away
1. Training package reform is going to create a major implementation wave.
Andrew's read on the Training Package Organising Framework (TPOF) is that the direction of reform is positive to meet skills needs, but processes that take longer than 18 months for new training product to be developed are challenging, and the real test will be implementation for training providers. Across the 10 Jobs and Skills Councils, substantial numbers of qualifications and units will progressively move through development, consultation, endorsement and provider implementation over the coming short number of years.
For RTOs, the challenge is not simply understanding a new training product. Every change can flow through to assessment systems, learning resources, trainer capability, sequencing, technology, facilities, compliance systems and cost. Andrew cited the example of one large TAFE organisation preparing for around 110 qualification changes over the next 2 years to illustrate the potentially substantial cost (many millions) and implementation burden involved.
Andrew's advice is straightforward: identify the Jobs and Skills Council relevant to your scope, understand its development pipeline and participate in consultations and industry discussions early rather than waiting for transition notices to arrive.
2. The VET sector needs to advocate for the whole sector, not just its individual parts
One of Andrew's strongest provocations was that the VET sector can sometimes become its own worst enemy.
TAFE, independent RTOs, enterprise providers and community-based providers all play different and important roles, but Andrew argues that too much sector advocacy becomes focused on proving why one part of VET is better than another.
That has consequences.
At a time when the sector needs more skilled, enthusiastic trainers and assessors, stronger investment and greater public confidence in vocational education, continually highlighting the failures of other parts of VET can undermine confidence in the system as a whole.
Andrew reflected on previous reforms to TAE trainer and assessor requirements as an example of how well-intended changes can also create significant transition burden and potentially discourage experienced practitioners from entering or remaining in the training workforce.
His challenge to sector leaders is to advocate strongly for quality while also becoming much better at telling the story of the life-changing outcomes being achieved across vocational education.
3. Completion matters - but it is only one measure of training success.
Fee-Free TAFE generated one of the most nuanced parts of the conversation.
Andrew strongly supports removing genuine financial barriers where cost prevents someone from accessing education that could materially improve their life and employment prospects. But he cautions against using a single headline measure to determine whether that investment has succeeded.
Completion is important, but raw comparisons between total enrolments and total completions need to be treated carefully because learners commence at different times, study at different intensities and may not yet have had sufficient time to complete.
Andrew also shared an example from his experience running civil construction training, where some learners gained the licences and practical capabilities needed to secure well-paid employment before completing every remaining unit in the qualification.
From a qualification-completion perspective, that learner may appear unsuccessful. From an employment and economic perspective, the outcome can look very different.
Andrew argues that public investment should therefore be assessed across a broader set of measures including access, learner progression, completion, employment outcomes, employer outcomes and the extent to which funding reaches people who would otherwise face genuine barriers to participation.
He also raised the question of whether future funding models could become more targeted, including whether learners who do not face financial barriers might make some contribution so limited public funding can reach further.
4. Just-in-time capability will become more important alongside full qualifications.
Andrew expects the next five years to see a significant shift towards shorter, targeted and more responsive forms of learning alongside traditional qualifications. Full qualifications will remain critical, particularly for occupational entry, regulated work and comprehensive technical capability. But for people already in the workforce, returning to study for one or two years every time technology changes their job is increasingly unrealistic.
AI, automation, digital transformation and changing workplace practices are creating demand for capability much faster than formal qualifications can always be reviewed and updated. Nationally recognised AI units and skill sets already exist, but the pace and breadth of technological change means the accredited training system will not immediately capture every emerging workplace application.
Andrew's challenge to providers is therefore to think more broadly about their role.
Understand what employers and workers need now and consider the full range of appropriate responses, qualifications, skill sets, recognised short-form training, high-quality non-accredited programs, micro-credentials and employer-specific capability development. As Andrew put it, “The market isn't going to wait for the training system to catch up.”
The longer-term shift may be from thinking purely as a qualification provider to becoming a capability partner for industry.
5. The next five years will require leaders who are “technologically curious and unapologetically human”.
For Andrew, leadership is the thread connecting almost every challenge facing VET.
New technology, qualification reform, funding changes and skills shortages all matter, but systems do not implement change by themselves. People do.
As AI makes information and knowledge increasingly accessible, Andrew expects distinctly human capabilities to become more valuable: judgement, communication, critical thinking, leadership, coaching, empathy and the ability to bring people with you through uncertainty.
It also has significant implications for CEOs and senior leaders.
Andrew argues that leaders should not pretend to have certainty where none exists. Employees and learners are navigating genuine uncertainty about work, technology, finances and their future.
Authentic leadership means being honest about what is known, what is not yet known and what the organisation is doing next.
Communication capability will become increasingly important as technological change accelerates.
Mentioned resources
Training Package Organising Framework (effective 1 July 2025)
Updated TPOF commences 1 July 2025 (DEWR announcement)
Qualification Reform Design Group Paper (December 2023)
Jobs and Skills Councils directory
TAE DEWR interim arrangements - technical queries to TrainingProductQueries@dewr.gov.au
Where the conversation goes
00:00 Welcome and Acknowledgement
00:55 Meet Andrew Shea
06:10 Training Package Reform Explained
15:49 Workforce Capability and Morale
30:55 Fee Free TAFE Debate
36:20 National Skills Funding Priorities
39:04 Policy Confidence for Providers
50:17 Five Year Leadership Focus
53:01 Wrap Up Next Episodes
Watch or listen
Watch on YouTube: The Skills Forecast — Episode 2
Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
About the guest
Andrew Shea is an award-winning Australian tertiary education leader and adviser with more than 20 years’ experience across VET, workforce capability, governance, quality, cyber security and business leadership. He has been CEO of multiple large successful national Registered Training Organisations, and is currently Managing Director of Skilled Nation, advising governments, industry bodies and training providers on strategy, reform, quality and implementation, and also leads the VET Quality & Innovation Network. Andrew was a Director of Peak Body ITECA for nearly a decade, chaired the TAE, and Foundation Skills Training Package, Technical Reference Groups, is on the Future Skills Organisations Digital Taskforce, and has contributed to national sector discussions through being a founding member of ASQA’s Stakeholder Liaison Group along with Kerri. His perspective is grounded in both policy and the practical realities of leading and implementing change inside training organisations.
What's next
Episode 3 of The Skills Forecast is in September 2026 — Kerri talks with Julian Ridden about AI in the classroom. Register for the next live session, or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice so you don't miss it.